A tale of two insurgencies
The insurgent campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan are exerting severe pressure on United States and British forces – and there is more to come.

George W Bush's hailing of a "turning-point" in Iraq in his speech of 22 May has coincided with more problems for the coalition forces there. The United States president's most recent declarations of optimism follow repeated examples of the genre over the past three years, many occasioned by particular events: the deaths of Uday and Qusay Hussein, the capturing of Saddam Hussein himself, the handover from Paul Bremer to a selected Iraqi administration, the agreement of an Iraqi constitution, and the national elections of January 2006. The statements may serve the purpose of trying to persuade Americans to accept the rising toll of casualties; but each time, the expectations they raise have been unfounded.

This time, the welcome indicator of progress was the long-delayed establishment of an Iraqi government under prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. The optimism of the US president or his close ally Tony Blair paid little heed to the fact that key ministries remained unfilled. More immediately, the political manoeuvrings in Baghdad occurred against the backdrop of a series of bombings across much of central Iraq and a rapid deterioration in security in Basra, prompting the declaration of a state of emergency in the southern city.

Every day, scores of Iraqi civilians are being killed. In addition, the British have had one of their worst months since the beginning of the war, while the easing of US casualties in March was brutally reversed, as losses in April-May 2006 were among the highest in these three years: 143 soldiers killed and more than 800 injured.

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